Saturday, February 18, 2012

The Weekly Martini – information from Kevin Martini with SunTrust Mortgage on Raleigh Mortgage Rates

The Weekly Martini – information from Kevin Martini with SunTrust Mortgage on Raleigh Mortgage Rates

Last week there was a string of positive economic reports…news out of Greece & hints that inflation is heating up all worked together to impactRaleigh Home Loan Rates.

Here is the Kevin Martini Group at SunTrust Mortgage breakdown… In the housing arena, Housing Starts came in better than expected, while both the New York Empire State Index & the Philadelphia Fed Index reported positive manufacturing news. There was also decent labor market news, as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 13,000 in the latest week to 348,000 (folks, this is the lowest level since March 2008)…and there is more -→ Retail Sales rose in January by 0.4%.

The frequent readers of The Weekly Kevin Martini know that strong economic news often cause money to flow out of Bonds & into Stocks, as investors hope to take advantage of gains. That’s partly what caused Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which Raleigh Home Loan Rates are tied) to worsen late last week.

But the news that inflation was heating up put some pressure on Bonds &Raleigh Mortgage Rates. Now, the Fed is claiming that inflation is moderating, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out volatile food and energy, rose to its highest levels since October 2008. However, the wholesale measuring Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose double the expectations of 0.2%, coming in at 0.4%. Any hints of inflation can serve to spook Bond investors – causing both Bonds and Raleigh Mortgage Rates to worsen – as inflation can reduce the value of fixed investments like Bonds. This is one story to keep a close eye on in the weeks ahead.

The drama in Greece is another key story to monitor, as it also impacted Bonds and Raleigh Home Loan Rates last week. Greece sent the markets into the weekend with assuring messages that a deal for them to avoid default is close, and this sense of optimism weighed on Bonds and Raleigh Mortgage Rates. Bonds & Raleigh Mortgage Rates have benefitted from all the uncertainty in Greece, as investors have seen our Bond Market as a safe haven for their money. Time will tell whether this uncertainty and safe haven trading will continue.

At the end of the day, NOW is a great time to purchase or refinance, as Raleigh Mortgage Rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you.

The forecast next week is light & the market will be closed on Monday due to Presidents’ Day. Now, even a light week will bring some data – here is what is happening…

• On Wednesday Existing Home Sales will be released, followed by the New Home Sales report on Friday. The reports come after last week’s positive Housing Starts data.
• Thursday brings the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, which has steadily declined this year to a more job-friendly level.
• On Friday, the Consumer Sentiment Report will be released.

In addition to those reports, a number of news stories may move the markets, including additional news out of Greece, the Treasury Department’s auction of $99 Billion worth of government securities, and movement in the Stock Market. All of those news stories have the potential to negatively impact the Bond Market, depending on how they develop.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and Raleigh Home Loan Rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

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