Sunday, January 15, 2012

Great news last week — what did it mean for Raleigh Mortgage Rates?

Great news last week — what did it mean for Raleigh Mortgage Rates?

There was good news last week! We had our first look at Consumer Sentiment for January…it came in at 74.0, which is the highest level since May 2011! However, there was also news last week that the holiday shopping season may not have been as robust as previously thought.

Retail Sales in December rose by a meager 0.1% from 0.4% in November, and when stripping out autos, sales actually fell 0.2%. Why did this happen? It seems that steep holiday discounting held down the value of goods sold, so sales were big, but only because of the heavy discounting – it makes sense.

The news from across the pond last week also wasn’t too happy. They are still working to restructure the Greek debt – many people are going to be taking a haircut. The issue is not ‘if’…it is ‘when’ the Greek issue gets resolved. So, the real question is will Ireland, Portugal and even Italy ask for a similar hair style that Greece is getting?

So, the good news is that these problems are finally being addressed to make things better in the future. And in the short term, the uncertainty should keep money flowing into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds – including Mortgage Bonds, to which Raleigh Home Loan Rates are tied. In addition, Mortgage Bonds continue to be supported by the Fed’s purchases, which are also helping to keep Raleigh Mortgage Rates at record low levels.

All of this means that NOW continues to remain a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you.

Yes, on Monday the markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day however the rest of the week’s economic calendar is full:

• Manufacturing strong? The week’s economic data kicks off on Tuesday with a manufacturing indicator from New York’s Empire State Index for January. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Index for January will be released on Thursday. Last month, both reports reached their highest levels in months. Remember: The Stock Market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. However, the Bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that won’t generate inflationary pressures.

• Speaking of inflation… We’ll see inflation reports on the wholesale level in the Producer Price Index on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. Inflation has remained tame…and Bondholders will be closely watching these two indicators for any signs of an uptick.

• Back on track this week? Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual on Thursday. Last week’s number showed an uptick in claims and broke the recent trend of decreasing claims. However, the rise could have been due in part to layoffs of seasonal holiday workers. So the markets will be watching to see if this report gets back on track with the recent positive trend.

• No place like home! Housing data in the form of Housing Starts, Building Permits and Existing Home Sales will all be reported this week. Housing continues to troll around low levels despite record low Raleigh Home Loan Rates.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and Raleigh Home Loan Rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Hot off the press…GOOD NEWS on Year-end foreclosure stats; what will it mean for Raleigh Mortgage Rates

Hot off the press…GOOD NEWS on Year-end foreclosure stats; what will it mean for Raleigh Mortgage Rates

The stats are in & what do the stats mean for Raleigh Mortgage Rates? First to the numbers…a recent report that came on my radar today from RealtyTrac…it shared that banks filed foreclosures on roughly 205K houses in December 2011 Nationally. Yes, it is a lot however it is the lowest monthly total since November 2007.

The news even gets better…foreclosures for 2011 dropped nearly 35% from 2010.

Raleigh Mortgage Rates come from the Bond market…remember: bad economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and Raleigh Home Loan Rates improve, while strong economic & good news normally has the opposite result.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

The Weekly Kevin Martini – what happened yesterday is good & what does this good news mean for Raleigh Home Loan Rates?

The Weekly Kevin Martini – what happened yesterday is good & what does this good news mean for Raleigh Home Loan Rates?

Yesterday’s Jobs Report showed that unemployment has reached three-year low – what does that mean for Raleigh Home Loan Rates?

The Labor Department reported that 200,000 jobs were created in December, with 212,000 private job gains offsetting modest losses in government jobs. Adding to the positive spin of the report was the Unemployment Rate falling to 8.5% from a previously reported and upwardly revised 8.7% reading!

Overall the Jobs Report was a positive reading on the labor market. Yes, there is still a tom of people that are unemployed however the big Kevin Martini takeaway yesterday is that the trend is improving.

Folks, we need to remember, the problems in the Europe are big problems, very complicated problems & without an easy solutions…so it will take a very long time for clear resolution. And during times of global uncertainty, money will flow into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds – including Mortgage Bonds, which Raleigh Home Loan Rates are tied to.

This means that Raleigh Home Loan Rates should continue in their sideways trend & remain near historic lows, making now a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions. My direct dial number is 919.274.3700.

The first half of the week is slow however second half of the week features several important economic reports:

• The Fed’s Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. This is a report on economic conditions from the 12 Federal Reserve District Banks around the country.
• Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Last week’s number fell by 15,000 to 372,000 and the report signaled that the labor market could be turning the corner to greener pastures.
• Retail Sales will be released on Thursday and will be closely watched by both investors and traders. Last week, it was reported that retailers saw better-than-expected revenues for same-store sales in December, but the numbers were achieved by big discounts. Sales on Black Friday were robust, but fell off in the ensuing weeks during December. So the markets will be watching closely for the final numbers this week.
• The first look on Consumer Sentiment for January will be released on Friday.

In addition to those reports, the Treasury Department will sell a total of $66 Billion in government securities on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Those auctions could impact the markets, depending on how they’re received. The Kevin Martini Group at SunTrust Mortgage will be watching the results – and their impact – very closely.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and Raleigh Home Loan Ratesimprove, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

Friday, January 6, 2012

The Kevin Martini Top 5 Predications for Raleigh – Cary Residential Real Estate

The Kevin Martini Top 5 Predications for Raleigh – Cary Residential Real Estate

Real estate is local — just like the weather. Real estate in the Triangle of North Carolina & specifically in Raleigh – Cary residential real estate arena has been somewhat protected from the market declines in housing experienced across the U.S.

As a Mortgage Banker & as a homeowner in Raleigh, that is a good thing! Folks, I think it is going to go from good to great as I am starting to see material factors of a rebound. There are several very positive factors at play & let us look at them in what I like to call:

The KEVIN MARTINI Top 5 Predications for Raleigh – Cary Residential Real Estate

#1…continued low interest rates
#2…home prices stabilizing & starting to rise (yes, rise!)
#3…increasing numbers of home sales
#4…increasing inventories of homes
#5…increasing need for the consumer to have a trusted real estate agent in tune with the market & a trusted local mortgage banker

Let me take a moment to expand on predication #1 — after all, I am mortgage banker with SunTrust Mortgage. Raleigh Mortgage Rates & Cary Mortgage Rates will remain at or near the historic lows however they will not be for the entire year.

With interest rates lower than generations have ever seen, it is creating a unique environment that may never be repeated — informed & savvy consumers are currently leading the way…along with real estate investors– they recognize NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!